Chapter 1. Inadequacy and Modesty
There are two approaches to thinking about outperformance that yield extraordinarily different results: modesty, and inadequacy analysis.
Chapter 2. An Equilibrium of No Free Energy
How, in principle, can society end up neglecting obvious low-hanging fruit?
Chapter 3. Moloch’s Toolbox
Why does our civilization actually end up neglecting low-hanging fruit?
Chapter 4. Living in an Inadequate World
How can we take into account civilization’s brokenness in our decision-making, without overcorrecting?
Chapter 5. Blind Empiricism
Three anecdotes on the practical side of modesty.
Chapter 6. Against Modest Epistemology
An argument against modesty’s central idea: that we should be very hesitant to take our own reasoning at face value in the face of novelty or disagreement.
Chapter 7. Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence